On the UMR Pre-election Survey
I was a bit skeptical when I saw that this was an online survey, since heavy internet users in Singapore tend to slant towards the opposition. But since it predicted the overall vote for the PAP pretty well, it may be a reliable indicator of voter sentiment after all.
Notable results, for me:
- Voters are just as positive about the PAP as about the WP — for both parties, 55% of respondents indicated positive feelings.
- The WP has the least detractors — with 7% of voters having negative feelings about it, this is less than all the other parties.
- The PAP has the most detractors — 18% of voters have negative feelings about it.
- The above three points mean that overall, the WP actually has a better image than the PAP. It is likely that fear and lack of quality candidates (and hence lack of ability to contest all constituencies) are the main factors preventing the WP from getting more votes overall than the PAP. As I wrote in my last post, I am very impressed by the WP’s successful branding of itself and consistent messaging, and this merely confirms that they have been very successful in that respect. Alex Au’s latest survey of voters also confirms the WP’s strong branding, although his results apply only to those who voted for an opposition party.
- “Levels of satisfaction” with various issues did not track what people considered to be the important issues in the elections. For example, government accountability and transparency ranked second among the issues that voters considered to be the most important, but levels of dissatisfaction were higher on many other issues. Similarly, ministerial salaries had the second highest level of dissatisfaction but was only 8th on the list of most important issues.
- I was surprised how low down the list of dissatisfaction and important issues “immigration” was.
Some brief thoughts:
1. Being an internet survey doesn’t mean they used a random sample of whoever logged onto their survey site. Under the methodology section on p.2, UMR states they actually constructed a representative sample of voters which tallied as close to census data as possible.
In other words, this was an old fashioned, highly scientific survey. I’d wager that the sample was chosen off-line and the survey itself was conducted online.
In other words, this wasn’t a survey of internet users in Singapore.
2. The disconnect between “important issues” and “issues that voters are dissatisfied with” should be an line of inquiry for a post-mortem of the elections.
My more rubbish analysis of the performance of “problem ministers” showed that the vote swings were greatest in wards where ministers were linked to “important issues” like accountability rather than “emo bread and butter issues” like inequality, wages, etc.
3. “Immigration”. My own hypothesis is the opposition as a whole refused to make this an issue.
Comment by Akikonomu — May 17, 2011 @ 2:16 am
I’m not sure that ‘refused to make this an issue’ adequately characterises what they did with immigration. None of the parties made it their central argument against the PAP, but it was definitely raised as an issue at several rallies.
Comment by twasher — May 17, 2011 @ 4:53 am
I was referring to this: http://www.mycarforum.com/index.php?showtopic=2663008I
It seems to be a persistent urban legend of sorts. The full version tells of PRC students being invited to study in Singapore with free tuition, textbooks, living expenses, and lodging heavily subsidised - in secondary schools and junior colleges. And that they may make up as much as 20-25% of our students.
This is an open secret that disgruntled civil servants have been leaking to opposition party leaders for the past 3 years at least. This is the immigration issue that the opposition refused to bring up this election…
Comment by Akikonomu — May 17, 2011 @ 6:59 am
Ah, I see. I’m not sure that it takes disgruntled civil servants to leak it—why would the PRC students themselves not leak it? In any case, I’ve met PRCs overseas (who have never been in Singapore) who told me themselves that MOE did heavy recruiting at their secondary school and many of their childhood friends took up the offer.
Comment by twasher — May 17, 2011 @ 3:45 pm
It’s such an open secret in Singapore that practically everyone knows, everyone’s heard it from everyone else. But PRC students wouldn’t be leaking this to opposition politicians or their policy teams, and they won’t be leaking this to local net forums?
Comment by Akikonomu — May 19, 2011 @ 1:19 pm
Most people do not realize how far the WP has gone in rebranding itself. In the past, the WP had ‘joke’ candidates like ‘Professor’ Zeng Guoyuan (the fellow with a parrot and who had been fined for putting up a poster of Mas Selamat and stood for elections as a WP candidate in 1991 in the Bukit Timah SMC).
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1_4n1v4_O0 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxiT4PqaqP8
Full credit must be given to Low TK for successfully rebranding WP and building up the credibility of the party.
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